Fed Nomination Locked, But Confirmation Uncertain
Markets price Warsh confirmation drama amid Justice Department investigation backlash.
The market implies Kevin Warsh's Fed chair nomination is essentially settled at 98¢, reflecting Trump's official announcement last week. But the real action is in the confirmation battle brewing beneath the surface. Traders are pricing in near-certainty that Warsh gets the nod, yet heavy volume suggests underlying concern about Senate confirmation. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has already threatened to block any Fed nominees until the Justice Department probe of Jerome Powell ends, creating an unexpected hurdle. The odds have ticked up just 1¢ despite massive volume, suggesting money is flowing both ways as investors weigh Trump's political capital against genuine Republican resistance. While alternative candidates like Judy Shelton trade at just 3¢, the concentration of $2.9 million in daily volume reveals this isn't the coronation markets initially expected.
Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.