Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is widely seen as someone who could be the next Prime Minister and is currently the most popular Labour politician among the British public. The market reflects this momentum, with Burnham's odds jumping 37 cents as 80 plus Labour MPs call on Starmer to resign. Burnham confirmed Thursday evening that he will be requesting permission from Labour's decision-making body to stand in the Makerfield by-election, providing his pathway back to Westminster.

The surge reflects Burnham's unique appeal: he was the top choice of two-fifths (42%) of Labour members and only Andy Burnham would notably improve the Labour Party's image, with favourability increasing by a net +19%. Markets are pricing in his ability to navigate the constitutional hurdle of needing to be an MP before challenging for leadership, with traders clearly believing his return to parliament is now inevitable.