CO2 concentrations hit 431 ppm in April 2026, with projections reaching 432.2 ppm at the May peak — yet the market for hitting 445 ppm by 2030 collapsed from 38¢ to just 11¢, a 27-cent plunge. The dramatic reversal signals traders are reassessing climate trajectories despite record atmospheric levels. Current CO2 increments significantly exceed those projected in scenarios compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C, yet Paris Agreement requirements for rapid CO2 reduction remain well above current benchmarks. The market's massive repricing suggests growing confidence that while CO2 levels will continue rising, the extreme scenario of 445 ppm within four years now looks unlikely given current emission trends and potential policy interventions.