The market implies traders believe HR software unicorn Deel will officially announce its IPO imminently, with odds rocketing from 5¢ to 99¢ — essentially pricing in certainty ahead of tomorrow's May 1 deadline. CEO Alex Bouaziz has publicly stated "we are getting ready to go out, potentially next year [2026] or a bit later," and the company has reached $1 billion in revenue run rate while actively preparing for a public offering.

The surge in conviction comes despite ongoing legal headwinds, with Deel facing litigation over alleged money laundering transactions worth $2.27 million. The high-stakes legal battle with rival Rippling could substantially delay any IPO plans, serving as a reminder that fast-growing startups often clash with each other as well as incumbents. The binary nature of this market — either Deel announces tomorrow or the odds collapse — makes this one of the most time-sensitive bets on the platform.