The market implies Fannie Mae's much-anticipated IPO plans have stalled, with odds collapsing from 62¢ to just 4¢ on a 2026 announcement. The dramatic selloff reflects growing awareness that Fannie Mae won't achieve full capital compliance until Q3 2027, making an IPO announcement before that unlikely. Recent Trump administration directives for $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities purchases have further complicated privatization timelines, with industry experts suggesting the GSEs may remain in conservatorship through the election cycle. This repricing represents one of the largest single-day moves in the housing finance prediction space, signaling traders are abandoning earlier optimism about rapid privatization.