The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in March with policymakers still signaling only one cut this year and another in 2027, though timing remains unclear. Inflation forecasts were revised higher, with both PCE and Core PCE now expected at 2.7% for 2026, up from December projections of 2.4% and 2.5%.

Brent crude has surged over 55% since the Iran war began in late February, triggering gasoline price jumps while many employers put hiring plans on hold. J.P. Morgan now sees the Fed holding rates steady for all of 2026, with the next move likely being a 25 basis point hike in Q3 2027. The coordinated surge across multiple rate markets — from 98¢ on above 2.25% rates to 73¢ on maintaining current levels — signals traders are abandoning hopes for meaningful easing.