Federal Reserve rate markets show dramatic shifts suggesting traders expect a less dovish path. The market now prices 48¢ odds on rates above 4.25% by April 2027, up 42 cents from just 6¢. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent at their March meeting, but the recent spike in oil prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, has complicated the Fed's picture. With zero net job creation in the private sector over six months yet persistent inflation pressures from energy costs, markets are pricing less aggressive cutting than previously expected.