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Fed Rate Markets Flip Hawkish Hard

Traders now price significant odds of Fed hikes through 2027, abandoning earlier cut expectations as inflation pressures mount.

The Fed's March meeting revealed upward revisions to inflation forecasts, with officials now expecting 2.7% PCE inflation for 2026, both headline and core. Markets have shifted dramatically—futures now price a 52% probability of rate increases by end-2026, driven by oil prices topping $110 amid the Iran conflict and mounting inflation pressures. The coordinated moves across Fed rate markets—from January 2027 cuts (Above 4.00% jumped 41¢) to April 2027 hikes (Above 3.75% up 43¢)—signal traders are pricing a fundamentally different trajectory. Fed officials indicated consensus for one cut this year, but market pricing points to no chance of reduction.

Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.