Lutnick Exit Odds Surge on Ethics Storm
Commerce Secretary faces bipartisan calls for resignation as traders price 91¢ odds on his departure before September.
On February 10, 2026, Lutnick testified before the Senate Appropriations Committee on his relationship with Epstein. Here, Lutnick admitted that in December 2012, four years after Epstein's conviction, Lutnick and his wife and children visited Little Saint James where they had lunch with Epstein. Traders have dramatically repriced the odds of Howard Lutnick leaving his Commerce Secretary post before September 1st, driving the market to 91¢ from just 28¢ — a massive 63-cent swing reflecting the escalating political pressure. Lutnick, a member of President Donald Trump's Cabinet, is the highest-profile U.S. official to face bipartisan calls for his resignation amid revelations of his ties to Epstein. Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not mention Lutnick by name, but told reporters Tuesday that those mentioned in the Epstein files are "going to have to answer questions around that." The market's conviction is reflected in high volume of 1,105 contracts traded in 24 hours. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday that Lutnick "remains a very important member of President Trump's team, and the president fully supports the secretary," but traders are betting the political heat will prove unsustainable.
Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.