Mahomes comeback odds collapse amid injury concerns
Patrick Mahomes' Comeback Player of the Year odds crash 68 cents as ACL recovery timeline raises Week 1 doubts.
Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL and LCL during a Dec. 14 loss to the Chargers, ending his season and the Chiefs' playoff hopes. His Comeback Player of the Year odds crashed from 98¢ to 30¢, a 68-cent drop reflecting market skepticism about his 2026 return timeline. While Mahomes appears on track to return for OTAs, he's still months removed from the ACL tear and the regular season is a long way off. ACL tears typically take around nine months to fully heal, though recovery time can vary, and the season opener is expected around Sept. 10, about nine months after his injury. The Chiefs shockingly missed the playoffs in 2025 for the first time since Mahomes became starter, finishing with a top-10 draft pick. The massive odds collapse suggests traders doubt both his recovery timeline and comeback narrative given the team's broader struggles.
Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.