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Market data as of

Peru Election Markets Signal Fujimori Momentum

Keiko Fujimori-linked contracts surged after first-round results positioned her ahead in the June runoff

Markets are pricing in Keiko Fujimori as the frontrunner for Peru's June 7 presidential runoff, with 93¢ odds on her 5-10% first-round victory margin, up from 22¢. The massive swing reflects exit polls showing Fujimori ahead with around 17 percent of the vote in a chaotic first round that was extended to a second day due to logistical failures. Traders are now pricing Fujimori versus Roberto Sánchez as the most likely runoff matchup, with López Aliaga's chances for second place dropping sharply despite earlier polling strength. The volume surge across Peru contracts — exceeding $21,000 on second-place markets — suggests conviction that the political dynasty candidate has secured her path to the final round despite her controversial family legacy.

Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.