The prediction market is recalibrating around Keiko Fujimori's narrow 16.5% first-round lead, with her margin of victory markets shifting dramatically. The 0-5% margin bet surged from 40¢ to 65¢, while the 5-10% margin fell from 39¢ to 22¢.

Traders are pricing in a tighter race than polling suggested, with four candidates tied for second place within the margin of error. The market for a Fujimori-López Aliaga runoff crashed from 30¢ to 8¢, while Fujimori versus Roberto Sánchez Palomino rose from 69¢ to 89¢. Logistical failures prevented over 50,000 people from voting, adding uncertainty to an already volatile outcome.