Slovenia's parliamentary election delivered a razor-thin result that markets had priced as increasingly likely. With 99 percent of votes counted, the centre-left FM won 28.6 percent, narrowly ahead of the opposition Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), led by Janez Jansa, which garnered 28.2 percent, translating to the FM is projected to secure 29 seats versus the SDS is projected to take 28 seats.

Prediction markets had correctly anticipated this tight race and its coalition implications. The election resulted in a hung parliament, with no major party being likely to secure a majority of 46 seats. The markets pricing Freedom Movement seats "Above 27" at 92¢ and SDS seats "Above 25" at 97¢ accurately captured the final arithmetic.

Three smaller parties - New Slovenia, the Democrats, and Resni.ca - are also set to enter parliament and could play a decisive role in coalition negotiations. Prime Minister Robert Golob expressed confidence about forming government, though he acknowledged that coalition talks would be "tough". Markets now await clarity on whether centrist parties will align with the incumbent liberals or enable a right-wing coalition.