Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton won the Democratic primary for an open Senate seat, transforming yesterday's 14¢ longshot into a 97¢ certainty on her 6-9% margin of victory. The massive 83¢ swing simply reflects the market resolving to reality rather than predicting future outcomes.

Stratton was leading Cook County with 40% to Krishnamoorthi's 29% and Kelly's 23%, with a final margin of about 50,000 votes out of more than 900,000 cast. Her victory margin fell squarely in the 6-9% range that traders had priced at just 14¢ before polls closed. Pritzker helped fund Illinois Future PAC, which spent $14.9 million on ads boosting Stratton, overcoming Rep. Krishnamoorthi's fundraising advantage.

The companion IL-09 primary markets show similar resolution patterns, with Daniel Biss's tight victory margin driving the 0-4% category from 18¢ to 92¢. Stratton is expected to be in a strong position to win the general election in November in the historically Democratic state, making these primary results the key determinant of Illinois's next senator.