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Supreme Court Flip Crushes FTC Independence Bets

Traders abandon hopes for independent agency protections as oral arguments signal sweeping presidential power expansion.

The Supreme Court on Monday morning signaled that it was likely to strike down a federal law that restricts the president's ability to fire members of the Federal Trade Commission, causing markets to collapse from 87¢ to 17¢ overnight. The 70-cent crash reflects traders pricing in near-certain defeat for the 90-year-old precedent protecting independent agencies. A decision in favor of the Trump administration would significantly increase the president's power over not only the FTC but roughly two dozen other multi-member agencies. The implications extend far beyond the FTC — this ruling could reshape the entire landscape of federal regulatory independence, from the SEC to the Federal Reserve.

Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.