The market is pricing in a potential blue upset in Texas as traders lose confidence in both Republican primary candidates. Cornyn holds a narrow 45-44% edge against Talarico, while Paxton ties at 45% each, with polls showing Democratic nominee James Talarico leading both potential GOP nominees. The Paxton vs. Talarico odds jumped to 55¢ from 42¢, while Cornyn vs. Talarico plummeted to 3¢ from 25¢, suggesting traders see Paxton as a weaker general election candidate. Control of the Senate in 2027 could turn on the nominee Texas Republicans choose this May, making this runoff a national bellwether for GOP viability in traditionally red states.